College Pick 'em Preview: Can Ohio State prevail in L.A.?

By Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
Archive

College Pick'em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every Thursday to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick'em page on Mondays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews, and don't forget to check the message boards for plenty of chatter about all the week's action.

Oklahoma at Washington (10 points)

Washington will have a tough time rebounding after all the hubbub surrounding last week's controversial loss to BYU. Quarterback Jake Locker was hit with a much-criticized celebration penalty after scoring what could have been the game-tying touchdown at the end of regulation, but the Cougars blocked what became a 35-yard extra-point attempt after the 15-yard penalty. The Huskies were overmatched against Oklahoma already, but now have no chance with the distraction of the controversy and the hangover from such a disappointing defeat preventing the team from properly focusing on the Sooners' visit. Oklahoma is still breaking in some new personnel on defense, but the offense looks like one of the nation's top units. It's true that mobile quarterbacks like Locker have historically caused problems for Bob Stoops' defenses, and Washington is unlikely to be completely shut down by the Sooners. The other side of the ball, however, is a different story. Standout sophomores Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray lead a potent, balanced Sooners attack that has way too much firepower for a Washington stop unit that was the Pac-10's worst last year.
Oklahoma 45-17

BYU versus UCLA (9 points)

It's the rubber match between these teams who met twice during 2007. UCLA won the regular-season meeting despite being outgained by 100 yards, and BYU returned the favor in the Las Vegas Bowl by blocking what would have been the game-winning field goal. The Cougars also had a game-clinching block last week, on Washington's 35-yard extra point that was set up by the controversial celebration penalty on quarterback Jake Locker. BYU, which has lost a handful of recent early-season road games against BCS schools, is tired of hearing about how it didn't really deserve to win last week. This is a BYU team with a "BCS or bust" mentality after posting perfect 8-0 marks in Mountain West play the past two years. The Cougars appreciate the narrowness of their escape last week, and they'll come out with a chip on their shoulder in this one. UCLA upset Tennessee in the opener, but the Bruins are still an inexperienced, banged-up team with a first-year coach and a third-string quarterback. Rick Neuheisel admitted that his team overcelebrated a bit and didn't practice well during the bye week. BYU will play its best game to silence the naysayers, and shouldn't really be challenged at home.
BYU 38-17

Auburn at Mississippi State (8 points)

New Auburn coordinator Tony Franklin's offense looked much better with Texas Tech transfer Chris Todd at the helm last week, which is no surprise considering that Todd played for Franklin in high school. Last year's loss to MSU was part of an early-season offensive malaise caused by an inexperienced offensive line. This year, the Tigers return all five starters to that unit, and the front line should provide enough push for Auburn to move the chains consistently against a solid Bulldogs defense. State, on the other hand, won't score easily, and the host's chance for an upset rests on the defense delivering another strong performance. Auburn does have LSU up next, but the Tigers usually play well against lesser teams in early-season SEC road games, and should be focused here after last year's loss. Expect further improvement from the Auburn offense and more growing pains from MSU's sophomore triggerman Wesley Carroll as the Tigers take control.
Auburn 31-9

Iowa versus Iowa State (7 points)

The Ricky Stanzi era has officially begun at Iowa. The sophomore was named the Hawkeyes' starting quarterback this week, beating out much-maligned incumbent Jake Christensen. He'll lead an improved Iowa offense that has sputtered in consecutive six-win seasons but returns eight starters this year. Iowa has won three of the past five matchups against Iowa State, but fell to the Cyclones last year. Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz placed a bigger emphasis on this game in fall camp, and after fattening up on Maine and Florida International, the Hawkeyes will be ready for their first real test. Gene Chizik's Iowa State team is also an untested 2-0, but unlike Iowa is still rotating two quarterbacks. Both sophomore signal-callers are lightly experienced, as the Cyclones are replacing all-time career passing leader Bret Meyer this year. Results against Maine and FIU can only be taken so far, but Iowa's across-the-board improvement is palpable. Iowa State has been a spirited underdog in the rivalry series, but this doesn't look like the year for an upset.
Iowa 31-14

Virginia Tech versus Georgia Tech (6 points)

Georgia Tech got by Boston College last week in Paul Johnson's ACC debut, but it wasn't a pretty offensive performance for the Yellow Jackets' new option attack. However, Virginia Tech's offense has had its problems as well, with the Hokies' skill players inexperienced and the offensive line struggling. Frank Beamer has been spending more practice time with the offense this week after Tech averaged just 286 yards in its first two games. Neither team is likely to move the chains consistently in this Coastal Division tilt, but the Jackets will especially struggle to play mistake-free football while executing their brand-new schemes against a fast, aggressive and opportunistic Virginia Tech defense. Georgia Tech won't have much margin for error, and a road win is too much to ask from Johnson's fledgling team.
Virginia Tech 24-10

Georgia at South Carolina (5 points)

Steve Spurrier's South Carolina teams have established a history of close, low-scoring games versus their East Division rival. The Gamecocks finally broke through with a win last year, and Georgia will no doubt be motivated to avenge that loss, in which the Bulldogs did not score a touchdown. Kenny McKinley was the go-to receiver for the Gamecocks in that game, but he'll likely miss this week's tilt with a hamstring injury. Carolina could be favored in its next four games and may circle the wagons with a season-salvaging effort against Georgia, but the Cocks also might not be able to get off the mat after having their high expectations dampened so early in the season. Georgia has a spate of tough games on deck, but the Dawgs seem focused for this one and have too many weapons to falter in the face of anything short of a supreme effort by the host.
Georgia 27-14

Notre Dame versus Michigan (4 points)

Michigan has won two straight in this series, including a 38-0 pasting last year. Coach Charlie Weis -- known mainly for his X's and O's prowess -- has yet to prove himself a top-notch motivator, but Notre Dame players are well aware that a win over the worst Michigan team in several decades is a must if the Irish are to put last year's disastrous campaign behind them. Michigan is in total rebuilding mode, but the improvement in the Wolverines' offense was evident from the opening-week loss to Utah to last week's win over Miami (Ohio). Still, it's the defense that will be asked to carry the load for the Maize and Blue. Star end Tim Jamison and a veteran Michigan front four match up well with a weak-but-improving Notre Dame O-line that didn't allow quarterback Jimmy Clausen to be sacked last week against San Diego State. Clausen is clearly making progress, as are his receivers, but no one is too impressed with a nail-biter win over a young Aztecs squad. Still, as the adage claims, teams show the most improvement from week one to week two. Also, while it's hard to think of Clausen as a veteran signal-caller, he certainly qualifies, at least compared with Michigan's trio of unproven quarterbacks. The Irish should be quite a bit better this week, and while both teams will be motivated for this rivalry clash, it's the host that has to feel a greater sense of urgency. Michigan will get a pass from its fans this year no matter what happens. Even a losing record and the end of the Wolverines' bowl streak could be forgiven, given that new coach Rich Rodriguez is starting from scratch with his spread offense schemes. A new coach from a dissimilar program and an amazing exodus of talent lost to graduation make 2008 the most obvious rebuilding year in Ann Arbor in a long, long time. Notre Dame, however, absolutely has to win this one in order to make any claims of improvement over last year's disaster. If the Irish can't beat Michigan in its current state, Weis officially will be on the hot seat. Don't expect much offense, but the sophomore-laden Irish will show considerable improvement from last week, prevailing comfortably over an even younger Michigan squad that features a dozen or so players making their first road start.
Notre Dame 20-9

Ohio State at USC (3 points)

The two dominant programs of the decade -- at least one of these teams has appeared in five of the past six BCS title games -- finally meet Saturday in the latest "Game of the Century." The hype is strong, as it should be. Since Jim Tressel and Pete Carroll arrived on the scene in 2001, the two schools are a combined 152-30. For a young USC team, this game represents a chance to begin a new run of dominance under junior quarterback Mark Sanchez. For Ohio State, it represents the last chance to regain the respect lost in back-to-back title-game drubbings at the hands of SEC teams. Both sides have been thinking about and preparing for this game all summer. Both sides are exceptionally well-coached and supremely talented. The Trojans have the advantage of playing at home, but the Buckeyes have a more meaningful advantage: experience. USC is clearly one of those teams that reloads rather than rebuilds, but the Trojans return only 11 starters from last year's squad. Gone are 2007's top rusher, passer and receiver, along with four starters along the offensive line. Gone are the top two pass rushers, top cover corner and three of the top five tacklers. Gone are an amazing seven players taken in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, are a veteran, battle-tested group that returns 10 starters on offense and 18 of the top 20 tacklers on defense. The Bucks also field what may be the nation's best special teams. The game should deliver on the promise of a classic showdown. Ohio State is the more experienced team with more at stake, and that should be enough to come away with a win, even on the road.
Ohio State 24-20

Oregon at Purdue (2 points)

Oregon is the more talented team, and despite replacing star quarterback Dennis Dixon, the Ducks' offense looked unstoppable in their first two games. Purdue's oft-criticized defense may not be that much more of a test than Washington and Utah State, but there are reasons to believe the Boilers will bring forth their A-game on Saturday. This sort of win is what Purdue's program has been lacking recently, as the Boilers are just 12-34 versus ranked teams under Joe Tiller. However, this is the circled game on the Purdue calendar this year, and with a win over Oregon, Tiller could earn his school-record 85th victory in style. Tiller's Purdue teams have been most effective with senior quarterbacks, and triggerman Curtis Painter gives the host a large edge in experience at that position. However, the Boilers already have injury problems at linebacker, running back and on the offensive line, so Painter and his receiving corps may have to carry more than their usual share of the load. Fortunately for Oregon, the Ducks boast what may well be the nation's most talented secondary. The faster and more athletic Ducks should prevail, but Purdue won't be laying down for this one.
Oregon 38-31

Wisconsin at Fresno State (1 point)

These teams split a pair of games earlier in the decade, but this is the Badgers' first trip to Fresno. Wisconsin was not a good road team last year, losing to all three bowl teams on the away docket and scraping by the two also-rans. Fresno State is always at its best at home against BCS schools, and this should be a physical affair with plenty of pounding in the rushing game on both sides. The Bulldogs have the more experienced signal-caller as well as the home-field edge, but Wisconsin also fields a veteran squad. Quarterback Allan Evridge is in his first year as the Badgers' starter, but he's a senior transfer who made six starts at Kansas State as a redshirt freshman. Evridge threw for just 75 yards in an opening-week rout of Akron, but responded with 308 yards through the air last week when a solid Marshall team stacked the box against P.J. Hill and his backfield mates. The difference in the game might be the return of All-American tight end Travis Beckum, who missed the Badgers' first two games with a shoulder injury. Beckum is a premium talent at the key position in the Wisconsin offense; 45 percent of the team's completions in the first two games have gone to tight ends. Fresno State counters with its own Mackey Award candidate, tight end Bear Pascoe, who was second on the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns last year. The Bulldogs have a beefier front seven on defense than the undersized units of years past, and should be a physical match for the bruising Badgers, whose offensive front averages 6-foot-6 and 320 pounds. Wisconsin has more overall talent on the defensive side of the ball, though, and is a little deeper across the board. The Badgers are rightfully a slight favorite to win what should be one of the season's top inter-conference showdowns.
Wisconsin 34-31

Will Harris is a college football and fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com



 
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